Today was the day the war in the Ukraine was to end. As soon as the minerals deal was signed most of the world understood the Russian war in the Ukraine was over. Russia would have no way forward once the United States economic wellbeing was intertwined with that of the Ukrainian people.
More than just intertwined, most the minerals the United States desire are in the territory conquered/occupied by Russia. President Trump would have a very strong reasons to push the Russians out of as much Ukrainan territory as possible.
Beyond that United States businesses, along with the black market quasi military private security force they bring would be a better deterrent than a weak-willed peacekeeping force with lame rules of engagement. These private unofficial military forces would literally be able to bring cutting edge weapons systems on loan, with a wink and a nod, from the United States government. More effective than the combined European peacekeeping forces kept on standby in the Ukraine in case peace somehow breaks out.
Once the mineral agreement was signed if Russia pushed past the borders or broke the peace agreement the United States would have a very real reason to become involved militarily.
Essentially it was checkmate for the Russians, and a win for the Ukrainian people.
What happened instead was a small minded strongman decided to believe is own hype and after pissing away the lives of his fellow countrymen, he decided to piss on the people who kept him in power and his country in the fight.
To Volodymyr Sergeyevich Zelenskyy’s credit, when the invasion first happened the Biden administration’s answer was to evacuate the President of Ukraine to a life in exile. Instead, he stayed and shared the fate of his people.
Probably the last honest thing he shared with them.
Where things begin to go off the rails when European and United States influence come in. Western spy agencies and their paid allies in legacy media began to weave a narrative around Zelenskyy. In the west’s narrative he was a plucky hero keeping Russia at bay. Zelenskyy ate it up. Along with the high life and access to special occasions and locations around the world he would not ordinally be allowed. He jet sets around receiving accolades and awards everywhere he goes.
Sadly, the west’s goal was not to help Ukraine it was to hurt Russia. Ukraine was losing the war, given just enough to keep going but not enough to decisively end the conflict. All the better to whittle down the Russian menace.
Ukrainians were led to believe with the aid of the allies they would be able to push Russia out of their country and win the war. To Zelenskyy this all changes when the orange overlord returns to power. Zelenskyy’s biggest sugar daddy, er, we mean doner nation suddenly turns cold.
In fairness to the American public there was gross mismanagement nationally that had nothing to do with the Ukraine. However, it changed the mood of the America people. The wealth squandered by generations of politicians was now a sore spot. Spending money freely on a war very far away seemed futile when there were needs closer to home that needed tending.
Beyond the political shift in the United States the reality is the Ukraine was losing the war, bit by bit, a generation of Ukrainians lay dead in the trenches. And Russia is able to reequip and resupply faster than the United States could dropship to the Ukraine.
Territory lost was likely to stay lost.
There was no magic bullet coming. No nuclear nation status on the horizon. No membership in NATO. All that was left is a very bloody end.
It is not fair. After the Soviet Union collapsed Ukraine only turned over their nuclear weapons to the west because they were promised the west would defend them from any future aggression from the former Soviet Union or whatever form it may take in the future. Ukraine was betrayed by fickle politicians of the west, ironically their Soviet masters had warned them western powers were treacherous.
For whatever reason Zelenskyy decided to show his ass to the American people. The Ukrainian ambassador buries her head in disbelief. Vladimir Putin laughs harder than he has ever laughed in his long and twisted life. Apparently the only one in the room who didn’t understand what was going on, Zelenskyy, managed to snatch defeat out of the jaws of victory. Literally one pen stroke away from victory.
Zelenskyy desperately hopes all the BS the Biden administration and European allies fed him is true. All he need do is stand up to the bully Trump, bop him on the nose as one would a shark. Tell him “No”, “I do not have the billions of dollars you lent me, I lost that years ago. Now get your shit together. Come it’s time to go and lead our people into the trenches.”
The optics for Zelenskyy are not good. We will see if his intitled attitude will affect the support of the American people. Trouble with Trump’s political opposition lionizing Zelenskyy’s lust for war is those people are out of favor, out of power, and out of touch. There is nothing they can do change the outcome.
Zelenskyy likely will never meet with Trump again. Forget about any one of significance in the administration, he will be lucky to have a white house butler sign the accords with him.
How bad can it get?
Pretty damn bad. Starting tonight any intelligence shared with Ukraine could be shut off, any lingering aid denied, favorable loans called in, connections to those in places to assist denied, freedom to travel to all the vacations hotspots cutoff, sanctions could be enforced to encourage all parties involved to stand down. Zelenskyy could be deposed in coup, and a new strong man emerge to take his place.
Russia and the United States could agree Zelenskyy’s government is illegitimate, agree to peace and a ceasefire, force new elections and a new government in the Ukraine. Let’s be honest, if those two world powers agree on this England, Germany and Frace will not be far behind. Before it is over Zelenskyy could be on trial for fraud and seen as war criminal.
In one afternoon, Zelenskyy made the case for the Russian disinformation about him. He is not a man for peace and as such should be removed.
For the sake of his legacy Trump will want to usher in an era of peace. It bookends nicely with his ideal of a new American Golden Era.
Right now, fully rested after four hours of sleep, Trump is pushing with all the might of the United States government to create a solution for peace. With or without Zelenskyy, with or without the current Ukranian government. With or without the allies in Europe.
In the end the mineral deal will be signed, however knowing Trump the terms will be less favorable.
Peace will happen. Ukraine will be rebuilt with the help of the United States. It is just a matter of time; however more lives will likely be lost in futile efforts reminiscent of the Great War. Peace is not a certainty; it is a desired outcome. An outcome Trump is willing to bend the world around to achieve.
